Behavioral Finance
Investors should be aware of these biases because they can lead to poor decision-making. For example, if an investor only pays attention to information that confirms their beliefs, they might miss important information that contradicts those beliefs.
Overview #
Behavioral finance is the study of how people make financial decisions. It looks at how people choose to spend, save, and invest their money. It also looks at how people manage risk.
Behavioral finance can help people make better investment decisions by helping them understand how they make financial decisions. It can also help people understand why they make certain choices. This can help people make better choices in the future.
What are 5 principles of Behavioral Finance for individual investors? #
Investors should be aware of these biases because they can lead to poor decision-making. For example, if an investor only pays attention to information that confirms their beliefs, they might miss important information that contradicts those beliefs. This could lead them to make bad investment decisions. Alternatively, if an investor has a self-serving bias, they might take too much risk because they believe they are better at predicting stock market movements
1. Prospect theory #
Investors prefer avoiding losses to acquiring gains
Prospect theory is a cognitive bias that leads people to make decisions based on how they feel about the potential outcomes, rather than on the likelihood of those outcomes actually happening. This can lead to suboptimal decisions, as people often overweight the importance of small probabilities. For investors, this means that they may be more likely to take on too much risk in pursuit of a big payoff, or to sell winners too early and hold onto losers for too long.
2. Mental accounting #
Investors tend to categorize money into separate "mental accounts" and make decisions accordingly
Mental accounting is a behavioral finance concept that refers to the way people code, categorize, and mentally keep track of financial information. It affects financial decision-making in that people tend to make different decisions depending on how they mentally account for the costs and benefits involved. For example, someone might be more likely to spend $100 on a new coat if they think of it as a necessary purchase than if they think of it as a frivolous expense.
Mental accounting can lead to suboptimal decisions when investors fail to take all relevant factors into account. For instance, an investor might be reluctant to sell an underperforming stock because they mentally account for the original purchase price and believe they will realize a loss. However, if the stock is truly undervalued, selling it would actually be the more rational decision.
3. Reference points #
Investors use a reference point (usually the status quo) to make investment decisions
A reference point is a baseline that investors use to compare potential investments. This comparison is often made against the status quo, which is the current situation or most recent historical data. The problem with this approach is that it can lead to suboptimal decision-making. For example, if the stock market has been steadily rising for years, an investor may be more likely to invest in a new stock that is slightly lower than the current market average. However, if the market then crashes, the new investment will likely lose value along with the rest of the market. a problem
4. Overconfidence #
Investors tend to be overconfident about their ability to predict stock market movements
One reason why investors might be overconfident about their ability to predict stock market movements is because they may have a confirmation bias. This means that they are more likely to remember and believe information that confirms their existing beliefs. Another reason might be that they have a self-serving bias, which means that they are more likely to attribute their successes to their own skill and abilities, and attribute their failures to outside factors.
5. Herding #
Investors tend to follow the crowd when making investment decisions
One reason investors tend to follow the crowd when making investment decisions is that they are seeking confirmation that their decision is the correct one. If they see that other people are also investing in a particular stock, they are more likely to feel confident about their decision. Additionally, following the crowd can help investors avoid the feeling of regret that can come from making a contrarian investment that does not pan out.
Learn more 🎓 #
There are many resources available to investors who want to learn more about behavioral finance. Some popular resources include books such as Daniel Kahneman's "Thinking, Fast and Slow," Michael Mauboussin's "The Success Equation," and Richard Thaler's "Nudge." Alternatively, there are online courses offered by universities such as Duke University and the University of California, Berkeley. Finally, there are professional organizations such as the CFA Institute and the American Finance Association that offer resources and events related to behavioral finance.